The 2022 midterms have narrowed to a rough parity between Democrats and Republicans, following a significant Republican advantage in May. This development in the generic Congressional ballot from our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos election program does not mean Democrats are likely to hold on to control of the House of Representatives, considering Republican […] Read more »
Poll Shows Tight Race for Control of Congress as Class Divide Widens
With President Biden’s approval rating mired in the 30s and with nearly 80 percent of voters saying the country is heading in the wrong direction, all the ingredients seem to be in place for a Republican sweep in the November midterm elections. But Democrats and Republicans begin the campaign in […] Read more »
National Polls, State Ballots Measure Different ‘Public Opinions’
Nate Cohn, who covers politics and polling for the New York Times, wrote an article last month (6/3/22) comparing the results of national polls with actual ballot measures in states. His major theme was that national polls may be unreliable when they show high levels of support for various policies. […] Read more »
Rage, rage against the octogenarian steel cage match
This is the summer of Joe Biden’s discontent. Even though gas prices are dropping and the economy remains strong, Biden’s approval ratings resemble Harry Truman’s during the depths of the Korean War. … While prominent Democrats silently pray and softly whisper to reporters the hope that Biden will not run […] Read more »
Biden’s low poll numbers are exactly what we should expect
When Joe Biden was elected president, a common refrain was that he would usher in a new era of “normalcy” after four chaotic years of President Donald Trump. But in certain ways, normalcy hasn’t returned. This is visible first and foremost in the inflation rate, which in May was higher […] Read more »
Half of G.O.P. Voters Ready to Leave Trump Behind, Poll Finds
As Donald J. Trump weighs whether to open an unusually early White House campaign, a New York Times/Siena College poll shows that his post-presidential quest to consolidate his support within the Republican Party has instead left him weakened, with nearly half the party’s primary voters seeking someone different for president […] Read more »