In the race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman has a 10-point lead over Mehmet Oz among registered voters statewide. Fetterman’s lead narrows to 7 points among those who say they definitely plan to vote. In the governor’s race, Democrat Josh Shapiro is ahead of Republican Doug Mastriano […] Read more »
Recent Congressional Approval Trending Higher
Approval of Congress, which has been trending higher since August, is now 23%, its highest point in 2022. Still, roughly six weeks before the midterm elections, the vast majority of Americans — 75% — disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job. Americans’ approval of the Democratic-controlled 117th Congress […] Read more »
4 charts that show the GOP’s 2022 popularity gap
A month ago, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said out loud what many Republicans were undoubtedly feeling. Effectively, the message was: We’ve got a shot at a good 2022 midterm election, but some of these Trump candidates could screw it all up for us. At the time, there was […] Read more »
Why Stacey Abrams is a clear underdog in Georgia
The 2022 elections are, so far, shaping up to be better than Democrats had imagined. They’re now favored to hold the Senate, and they appear likely to keep their losses in the House below the historical midterm average for the party that controls the White House. They also seem to […] Read more »
Migration declines worsen worker shortages, inflation
… In 2015 and 2016, the United States saw a net international migration gain of more than 1 million people. It dipped to about 930,000 in 2017 and dropped to just over 700,000 in 2018. By 2020, the year of the pandemic’s arrival, it was under 500,000. And last year, […] Read more »
Republican lead in House shrinks again as voters see high-stakes contest
The Republicans have a lead. But it keeps shrinking. While they’re still in a very good position to capture a House majority, that majority looks narrower today than it ever has, having ticked down for the second straight month to 223 seats in our model estimate. Republicans were at 226 […] Read more »