… The problem with an analysis of abortion views based on sex is that it’s conflating two concepts: sex and gender. There aren’t many social scientists who are going to argue that someone’s reproductive organs make them hold certain social or political views; rather, it’s the way that those organs […] Read more »
Government Agency Ratings: CIA, FBI Up; Federal Reserve Down
Gallup’s latest update on federal government agency and department ratings finds a partial recovery in attitudes toward the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) after sharp declines between 2019 and 2021. Meanwhile, Americans have soured on the job the Federal Reserve Board is doing as it […] Read more »
Pennsylvania: Common Touch Key to Senate Race
Democrat John Fetterman is seen as understanding the concerns of ordinary Pennsylvanians more than Republican Mehmet Oz, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll of the U.S. Senate race. Fetterman maintains an overall advantage on being trusted more to handle key issues, including those prioritized by independents and Republicans. Fetterman […] Read more »
Horse-race polls are not fixable
The biggest “problem” with horse-race polling isn’t fixable. The entire concept of polling depends on having a set population from which one can take a random sample and get a generally representative snapshot. Pre-election polls have no existing population—the election hasn’t happened yet, and voting isn’t compulsory in the U.S., […] Read more »
Midterm polls swing back to the right
Over the past few months, Democrats have enjoyed an unexpected feeling of optimism, as polling has shown their party unexpectedly competitive in House and Senate races. Maybe, despite the political gravity tugging their party down, they might be able to hold the Senate? Maybe both chambers? In less-realistic iterations, that […] Read more »
California: Both sports wagering initiatives trail, while Newsom maintains a comfortable lead
The latest Berkeley IGS Poll of Californians considered likely to vote in the November general election finds the two sports wagering initiatives, Propositions 26 and 27, trailing by significant margins six weeks before the election. The poll finds Proposition 27, the initiative to allow online sports wagering, trailing two-to-one (53% […] Read more »