New CNN polling in two critical Senate battlegrounds finds that Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly holds a narrow lead over Republican challenger Blake Masters, while there is no clear leader in the race in Nevada between Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and her GOP opponent, Adam Laxalt. The Arizona poll […] Read more »
Public Interest in Having a Third Major Party Dips to 56%
After reaching a high of 62% at the start of 2021, the percentage of Americans believing the existing political parties “do such a poor job that a third major party is needed” has returned to a more typical 56%. At the same time, four in 10 Americans do not see […] Read more »
NPR poll shows Biden’s approval rating is up but there are warning signs for Democrats
With just over a month to go in the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats are starting to rally around President Biden, according to the latest NPR/Marist poll. Biden’s approval rating is up to 44%, which marks a third straight month of improvement. He had bottomed out in July at about 36%. […] Read more »
The 2022 Ad Wars
Key Points• To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September.• Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Crime has become a huge focus for Republicans, […] Read more »
Hispanics: The newest swing voter
… Hispanic voters are becoming a key part of swing voters that both parties are going to have compete for to build a majority coalition. However, these voters will be more difficult to reach with narrow, base issues. When either party runs base campaigns, they are simply not talking to […] Read more »
Arizona: Mark Kelly has edge in Senate race that hinges on abortion, economy, immigration
Arizona is another battleground where strong opposing forces underpin the race. Democratic candidates enjoy stronger personal ratings, while Republican voters are thinking more about national Senate control. There’s a tough economy and desire for tougher border controls helping Republicans, versus abortion helping Democrats. And in this state that was so […] Read more »