Key Points• We now rate 218 House seats — the magic number for winning a majority — as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings.• A large number of races remain close and competitive. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up breaking disproportionately to the Republicans.• […] Read more »
North Carolina: Budd Edges Beasley Among Definite Voters in Senate Race
In the race for U.S. Senate in North Carolina, Democrat Cheri Beasley and Republican Ted Budd are tied among registered voters in the state. But, among those definitely planning to vote, Budd has a narrow lead over Beasley. … President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is upside down in North […] Read more »
Election Beat 2022: Will turnout, swing voters or sheer luck decide the midterms?
The U.S. midterm election campaign has been going on for months, with upwards of $5 billion having been spent to sway the vote. All that spending has not been wasted, but it will account for far less than more persistent factors in determining the outcome of the midterms. One factor […] Read more »
Texas: Inflation worries voters; Republican candidates most favored
Republican Governor Greg Abbott leads Beto O’Rourke in the Texas governors’ race by more than four points, even though the Democrat has more support among Latinos and Blacks. The increase in the cost of living dominates the concerns of registered voters in Texas for the November 8 elections and is […] Read more »
Nevada: Latinos could tip the scales in senatorial and gubernatorial races
In Nevada, a close contest could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate for the second half of Joe Biden’s presidential term. The outcome of the election between the current Democratic Senator, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Republican Adam Laxalt, a candidate endorsed by former President Donald Trump, could […] Read more »
Why it matters if the polls miss again
I’m cutting to the chase: We have no idea if polls are overestimating Democrats this year. I could spend this column trying to read a crystal ball, pretending I have some sort of special insight, but I don’t, and there are plenty of others doing that. We’ve gotten better this […] Read more »