Republicans hold significant advantages on the bread-and-butter issues of the economy and inflation that are central concerns of this fall’s election, and are poised to claim a majority in the House in Tuesday’s election, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. Voters’ intentions for the House are split about evenly, […] Read more »
Economic discontent fuels GOP hopes as midterms draw to a close
Economic discontent and President Joe Biden’s unpopularity continue to fuel Republican prospects in the closing days of the 2022 midterm election campaign, with the share of Americans saying they’ve gotten worse off financially doubling since Biden took office, according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. Given inflation stubbornly near […] Read more »
Checks and Balance: End of midterm
The big guns are out. Donald Trump has three rallies planned before election day. Barack Obama has popped up in several battleground states. The former presidents will, separately, converge on Pennsylvania at the weekend, where Obama will be joined by a lesser-spotted figure on the trail: President Biden. What’s at […] Read more »
Pre-election polling trends
Here is my look at the pre-election polling, as of Nov. 5, 2022. The raw polling data is from FiveThirtyEight.com, who generously allow download of their polling database. The trends are my estimates and not those of FiveThirtyEight or anyone else. I include both LV and RV poll results because […] Read more »
Planet Money tries election polling
It’s another election cycle and many are wondering: Will the polls miss again this year? Because it’s true, polling has gotten a lot tougher these days. People aren’t picking up the phone. Nobody wants to talk to pollsters. It’s becoming a crisis for the polling industry. Today on the show, […] Read more »
These Two Big Unknowns Make the 2022 Midterms Unusually Unpredictable
Here are a few things to keep in mind about the next week’s midterm elections. Let me start with a preface. The Democrats could do fairly badly on Tuesday yet still better than presidential parties have historically performed in similar situations. This could be true without the election providing a […] Read more »