In the wake of President Biden’s announcement that he will seek re-election, there have been many stories assessing his chances of winning. Most if not all of these stories point to Biden’s low approval ratings as a danger sign, as they are well below the ratings of presidents in previous decades, and of nearly all presidents since the beginning of approval polling in the late 1930’s.
In this post, I will explain why approval ratings are an illusory measure of a modern president’s electoral chances. While voters may be responding to the same approval questions today that they have for the last 90 years, presidential approval simply doesn’t have the same electoral significance today that it has in decades past. A president in the 20th century was very likely to enjoy broad majority support for all or nearly all of their term in office. But, as you will see, low and stable approval ratings have become the defining features of presidential politics since W. Bush’s 9/11 bump faded in 2003. CONTINUED
Michael Podhorzer, Weekend Reading
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