People often talk about politics as though the business of electing candidates is shrouded in nearly infinite complexity. The reality is that for most of the 40 years I have been in and around campaigns, winning has often come down to just three factors — the racial composition of a district or state, its median income, and the percentage of its voters who graduated college.
Recent years, however, have upended old assumptions. These days, the first thing I want to know about a district or state is its population density. In other words, is it primarily rural, urban, or suburban? If it’s in the last category, how far do these voters live from downtown – i.e., is it more of an inner suburb or an outer one?
The suburbs have often played a key role in election outcomes. However, most have missed how deeply they have changed since the turn of the century – and how profound the implications of those changes are for politics in the years ahead. CONTINUED
Doug Sosnik
The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack