Key Points
• Democrats tried but failed to get a seat at the redistricting table in four large Southern states in the 2018 and 2020 cycles: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.
• The consequences for redistricting are vitally important. It’s easy to imagine Republicans squeezing a half-dozen extra seats out of just these four states in 2022, and that may be just a floor on their potential gains.
• However, Republicans could also overreach, and court battles appear likely in all of these states. CONTINUED
Kyle Kondik & J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Hypothetical 10-4 Republican North Carolina gerrymander
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