Trump thinks racist rhetoric will help him in 2020. The data suggest otherwise.

President Trump’s “go back” tweets, directed at four congresswomen of color, elicited strong condemnation of both the president – and of GOP lawmakers who failed to denounce Trump’s racist tweets. Although overt expressions of racism from a president have long been considered politically unthinkable, many analysts view Trump’s latest provocations as consistent with his long history of racist rhetoric and behavior.

To others, there’s also a sinister calculus at play: Trump believes that race-baiting will help him win re-election in 2020. Political analysts are wondering whether or not this will pay off.

Our research suggests this approach isn’t likely to work. CONT.

Peter K. Enns & Jonathon P. Schuldt (Cornell), Monkey Cage