Late Thursday night, voters in the English city of Newcastle chose to remain in the European Union. Pollsters had predicted that voters there and elsewhere in Britain would have voted Remain by a considerable margin. In the end, Remain won by the tiniest of margins, taking 50.7 percent of the vote in Newcastle.
Over the next six hours, results from across the United Kingdom showed that British voters were tearing up the script and starting again. …
Before we move on to discussing the consequences of this shock vote, it’s important to think about what this says about our ability to predict, and render intelligible, referendums of this kind. There are four main points to make. CONT.
Chris Hanretty (U. of East Anglia), The Monkey Cage