A simple model based on two predictors — the racial composition of the Democratic primary electorate and a dummy variable for region — explain over 90% of the variance in Hillary Clinton’s vote share in this year’s Democratic primaries through March 8. The results of a regression analysis of Clinton’s vote share in 12 states for which exit poll data are available are presented in Table 1. …
The estimates from Table 1 can be used to predict the results of future Democratic primary contests by simply plugging in the region dummy variable and an estimate of the nonwhite share of the electorate. CONT.
Alan I. Abramowitz, Sabato’s Crystal Ball