Virginia voters are divided on their outlook more than a year after pivoting from a Democratic state government to a Republican governor and a split legislature, with 47 percent saying the state is heading in the right direction and 42 percent saying it is on the wrong track, according to […] Read more »
Democrats have been doing well in special elections in 2023
Democrat Jennifer McClellan easily won the special election for Virginia’s 4th Congressional District last week. The fact that a Democrat comfortably retained a Democratic seat in a district President Joe Biden would have won under its new lines by 36 points in 2020 is not surprising. What is notable is […] Read more »
Notes on the State of Politics: Wisconsin’s key state Supreme Court race; U.S. House back to full strength, but not for long
Key Points• In Virginia, Democrats have held the Richmond-area 4th District with state Sen. Jennifer McClellan. Her nearly 50-point win represented a notable overperformance.• The most important judicial race of this year will be in the closely-divided state of Wisconsin, where control of the state Supreme Court is on the […] Read more »
Too close to call? When is a dead heat really a dead heat?
The headline in the Washington Post Metro section on Oct. 22 was clear: “Poll shows Luria, Kiggans in dead heat in final leg of crucial race.” … My immediate take was that, based solely on the poll’s ballot test, Luria is an underdog and in deep trouble. That’s because at […] Read more »
Virginia: Possible 2024 Senate Matchup
The 2022 annual statewide survey from the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington focuses on current contests this fall, with one notable forecast. If Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) and U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine (D) face off in a possible 2024 U.S. Senate contest, […] Read more »
Senate Rating Changes: Arizona, Pennsylvania to Leans Democratic
Key Points• We are moving the Senate races in Arizona and Pennsylvania from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on account of candidate weaknesses for Republicans in both states and what appears to be a not-as-bleak environment for Democrats.• The overall race for the Senate remains a Toss-up, with 49 seats at […] Read more »