Democrats think 2018 will be a good year, but are they realistic about their own problems?

Thanks mostly to President Trump, Democrats believe they are poised for good things in 2018: the possibility of taking control of the House and gains elsewhere in the midterm elections. But planning victory laps would be premature. Whatever their prospects for the fall campaigns, the Democrats are still in need […] Read more »

If 2018 Is Like 2017, the House Will Be a Tossup

Assume, for the moment, that next year’s midterm elections go exactly like this year’s special and general elections. What would happen? The Democrats would post sweeping gains. They would win the House national popular vote, probably by a wide margin. But the battle for House control would be close. The […] Read more »

Top Five Takeaways from the 2017 Elections

The 2017 elections were quite a revelation. Pretty much everywhere where the Republicans could have lost, they lost. … One must be cautious in reading too much into any one election, especially a non-federal one where electoral contests were irregularly scattered around the country. But there are some important takeaways […] Read more »

How Republican losses in Virginia could mean real trouble for the GOP in 2018

In 1897, an earthquake that hit 5.8 on the Richter scale shook Virginia and was felt across 12 other states. Six months later, William McKinley’s Republican Party experienced its own disaster in Virginia, losing 15 seats in the state House of Delegates. Not until Tuesday night did another such earthquake […] Read more »

Laws of Political Gravity Dragging Down Republicans

About a year ago at this time, many of us in Washington, DC were trying to catch our breath, still reeling from the political upset that blindsided us. Many of us were wondering if the rulebook of politics—the one all of us had been dutifully following for years—should be thrown […] Read more »

Democratic Domination in the Old Dominion

Tuesday represented the best non-presidential election night Democrats have had since 2006. They swept the statewide ticket in Virginia for the second election in a row, and they picked up the New Jersey governorship. They also won a crucial, majority-making state Senate election in Washington state, so they won complete […] Read more »

Suburbs Rebel Against Trump, Threatening Republicans in Congress

The American suburbs appear to be in revolt against President Trump after a muscular coalition of college-educated voters and racial and ethnic minorities on Tuesday dealt the Republican Party a thumping rejection and propelled a diverse class of Democrats into office. From the tax-obsessed suburbs of New York City to […] Read more »

California Is the Future

America is stuck between two historical eras. That’s the best way to understand the strange, unprecedented politics of Trump, the political polarization and paralysis of government, the deep dissatisfaction of public opinion, the lack of trust in all institutions — all of it. The post-Industrial era that blossomed in the second half […] Read more »

2017 Special Elections Look Like a Wave

Pundits and campaign professionals have wrestled with whether 2018 will be a wave election or not, using metrics like President Trump’s job rating, candidate recruitment, fundraising and the four Congressional special elections in the last six months. A deeper more-local look at 2017 elections, though, show an already-building wave. Over […] Read more »

Could the California Democrats’ supermajority become their kryptonite?

Riding a wave of anti-Trump sentiment, Democrats in California were able to cobble together enough State Assembly and Senate seats to give them a two-thirds supermajority in both chambers. Their strengthened majorities have emboldened them to pursue a liberal agenda, but the latest polling data suggests they may be overreaching […] Read more »