Special elections and the Trump Vote

Special elections for the Kansas 4th and Georgia 6th Congressional districts have drawn tremendous attention as harbingers of Republican and Democratic fortunes under President Trump. … A fundamental problem with focusing on these congressional seats is their small numbers which makes comparison and generalization to other districts difficult. We address […] Read more »

Forget Kansas. This chart shows why Republicans need to worry about 2018

Political Washington is in the midst of a heated debate over what — if anything — the somewhat-closer-than-expected special election in Kansas on Tuesday means for next November’s midterm elections. No matter where you come down on that question — I think there were clear warning signs for Republicans in […] Read more »

Since 2008, nearly every state moved right in both presidential and state politics

After President George W. Bush won reelection in 2004, there was a rumbling that the Republican Party had permanently broken the back of its opponents. Bush was underwater in his approval rating before the election, and his administration was hobbled by a slew of problems. But he won, convincingly — […] Read more »

A Third of Californians Approve of Trump’s Job Performance

Just a third of Californians approve of the way President Trump is doing his job, according to a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), with funding from the James Irvine Foundation. … As California leaders consider their responses to Trump’s early action on immigration, […] Read more »

Democrats have no quick fixes in their bid to regain ground lost

… Trump’s presidency has generated anger and energy across the country among those who oppose him and much of his agenda. Trump’s disapproval ratings are higher than for any new president. Republicans in Congress sometimes appear flummoxed, even alarmed, by what Trump says and does. Democrats see all this as […] Read more »

What Happens to the Democratic Party After Obama?

… Through two terms, Obama deepened the Democrats’ connection with a constellation of growing groups, namely minorities, the millennial generation, and college-educated whites, especially women. That coalition allowed him to join the ranks of Andrew Jackson and Franklin Roosevelt, the only Democrats to win a presidential popular-vote majority at least […] Read more »

The Case for ‘Normal’ Elections Under a President Donald Trump

What might the next few election cycles look like? There’s a tendency right now to think that the political system in the United States has gone off the rails into some uncharted territory. But there’s good reason to believe that the same rules that have governed it in the past […] Read more »

Can the Democratic Party rise again? Yes — and here’s the first big thing to watch.

If you care about whether the Democratic Party can rebuild itself anytime soon out of the smoking wreckage left behind by the disastrous 2016 elections, something very important is happening a lot sooner than you think. There are more than three dozen gubernatorial races taking place in the next two […] Read more »