Rural Hispanic voters — like white rural voters — shifted toward Trump

… My county-by-county comparison of election results in 2016 and 2012, drawn from data available at,, and other sites, shows that rural white and rural Hispanic voters have a lot in common. Or to put it another way, the election of 2016 revealed an urban/rural divide that […] Read more »

Why identity politics couldn’t clinch a Clinton win

Many Democrats have believed that a coalition of minorities, millennials and single women would help create a new Democratic majority for years to come. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign was counting on it. But the “rising American electorate,” as it’s called, failed to carry Clinton across the finish line. It didn’t […] Read more »

In record numbers, Latinos voted overwhelmingly against Trump. We did the research.

What can we learn about the 2016 election from the Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll (about which more below)? Two things stand out. On Nov. 8, Latino turnout was up significantly compared with 2012. And Latinos gave a substantial share of their votes — we estimate 79 percent — to […] Read more »

The Clinton Loss

Even though Hillary Clinton is likely the popular vote winner nationally, Clinton did NOT get what she needed with minorities, leaving millions of votes on the table with African-Americans and Hispanics who were there four years ago for President Obama’s re-election. And, President-elect Donald Trump actually did marginally worse with […] Read more »

The Rundown on Latino Voter Election Eve Polling and Latino Exit Polls

On a press call and webinar held today, Matt Barreto, UCLA Professor of Political Science and Chicano Studies, and Co-Founder of Latino Decisions, presented the results of the Latino Decisions Election Eve poll. The key finding: Latinos backed Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a 78-19% margin. Barreto also highlighted […] Read more »

Trump Did Better With Blacks, Hispanics Than Romney in ’12: Exit Polls

Donald Trump performed stronger among black and Hispanic voters than Mitt Romney did as the Republican nominee in 2012, according to NBC Exit Polls. Tuesday’s exit poll results have not yet been finalized but so far they show Trump outmatching Romney by two points in each voting bloc. CONT. Amanda […] Read more »

Has the Balance of Power Shifted From the Rustbelt to the Sunbelt?

Since the photo-finish 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore that introduced the United States to the red-and-blue political map, the struggle between the parties for 270 Electoral College votes has resembled trench warfare. With most states locked down for one party or the other, both sides […] Read more »