Surprises Almost Certain in Iowa and New Hampshire

The voters of Iowa and New Hampshire jealously guard their first-in-the-nation franchise in the presidential nomination process, and they view themselves as the public’s screening committees for White House wannabes. … In 2016 it will be a shock if Iowa and/or New Hampshire don’t rearrange the presidential playing field. After […] Read more »

Democrats Shouldn’t Expect House Disarray to Help in 2016

With House Republicans in disarray after John Boehner’s likely successor withdrew from the Speaker’s race Thursday, speculation has grown about potential damage to the party’s chances in the 2016 election. Will voters punish the G.O.P. for the actions of a conservative faction that blocked Kevin McCarthy’s ascension and has been […] Read more »

In Sanders vs. Clinton, New Hampshire replays past splits

The political headlines out of New Hampshire this weekend bear an eerie resemblance to those of September 1999: an underdog senator overtaking a prohibitive front-runner in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination. In that case it was then-Sen. Bill Bradley surging ahead of then-Vice President Al Gore. Today it’s […] Read more »

Here’s why Donald Trump won’t win the Republican presidential nomination

Donald Trump’s authoritative lead in early polling in the 2016 Republican race for the presidential nomination has left Americans excited, confused and afraid. Trump hasn’t been out of first place in national polling since he filed as a candidate with the Federal Election Commission in mid-July. Most polls have him […] Read more »

Three Reasons to Be Skeptical of the Bernie Sanders Surge

Vermont Sen. and Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has had a good summer on the campaign trail. He’s drawing huge crowds at events across the country and a recent New Hampshire primary poll found him leading Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in the Granite State. But the numbers suggest there are […] Read more »

Is Hillary Clinton Really in Danger of Losing the Primary?

Bernie Sanders is said to be surging, Joe Biden is considering jumping in the race, and Hillary Rodham Clinton’s unfavorable ratings are the worst they’ve been in her 23-plus years in national politics — lower than they were in 2007 or 2008. Whether you call it wishful thinking or a […] Read more »