I have been saying that I’ll have a post about public opinion on the 2000 election, and here it is. The Supreme Court decision ending the recount was issued on December 12 at about 10PM. … On December 14 and 15, ABC News and the Washington Post conducted a poll […] Read more »
Democrats Won’t Cede the Streets This Time
During the long legal battle in Florida that ultimately determined the 2000 presidential election, Al Gore, the Democratic nominee, specifically discouraged Jesse Jackson, the veteran civil-rights leader, from organizing public protests to demand a full counting of the disputed ballots. Gore wanted to fight solely in the courts, though that […] Read more »
Trump’s likeability deficit could cost him in 2020
President Donald Trump has a likeability problem. Four years ago, Trump won election with the lowest favorability for a major party presidential candidate in the polling era. He did so because he won the overwhelming plurality of voters who both disliked Hillary Clinton, the second least liked candidate of all […] Read more »
Trump has weathered impeachment better than Clinton
… During the course of the Democrats’ impeachment inquiry into Trump, analysts such as myself have been making the few historical comparisons we can to judge the current situation. In these, Trump usually comes out looking poorly compared to Bill Clinton, the last president to be impeached. Clinton’s job approval […] Read more »
Cruel primary history lessons Joe Biden won’t want to hear
Joe Biden is the national front-runner in the Democratic presidential race. He is holding a steady lead in national polling, and his campaign boasts of the firewall he’s established among African American voters, who may be the key to victory in the Feb. 28 South Carolina primary and who have […] Read more »
What past impeachments tell us about Trump’s 2020 prospects
History signals that the public’s final verdict on President Donald Trump’s possible impeachment won’t be delivered until the 2020 election — whatever happens next in the House and Senate, and however Americans react to it. … “The whole impeachment debate has intensified preexisting feelings about the President,” says Republican pollster […] Read more »