The Ways That the 2016 Election Was Perfectly Normal

It’s no secret that the state of the nation’s economy and party identification matter in most American presidential elections. Candidates know it, consultants know it, political scientists know it, and voters seem aware of the relationship, too. …

In actuality, the state of the nation’s economy — growing slowly — was predicting a very close election in 2016: a contest that either party could win.

For all of the exceptionalism of 2016, the outcome was remarkably typical. The final vote share was very close, as the low growth rate and lack of an incumbent suggested it would be. CONT.

Lynn Vavreck (UCLA), New York Times