More thoughts on public opinion and Muslim/Refugee ban

On Wednesday, February 8, 2017, President Trump bragged on Twitter that the “Immigration Ban is One of Trump’s Most Popular Orders So Far”: 55 percent Approve, 38 percent Disapprove, and 8 percent Don’t Know/No Opinion. Of course, Trump cherry picked the most favorable poll for his Executive Order (EO) ….

But, we are not going to get into a methodical discussion today: we are going to agree that: (1) today (2) on the surface (3) framed as Trump presented it, the executive order is relatively popular.

Yet, while considering how this order affects public opinion it is important to remember: (1) The lawsuits (ultimately staying the EO) and protests are framed around the least popular aspects of the order, not the full order or the way that Trump frames it. (2) You are a political junkie, but most people do not game out public policy the way you do. We care a lot about who people will think in the weeks and months as the ramifications unfold. And, that will likely be a mix of what Trump message and what the opposition messages.

So, we do not focus just on the topline question about how people feel about the EO, like every other pollster does, but on the components, that may or may not become more salient as the EO’s impact unfolds. CONT.

Tobias Konitzer & David Rothschild, PredictWise