OK, we can all agree that the November election result was a shocker. According to news reports, even the Trump campaign team was stunned to come up a winner.
So now seemed like a good time to go over various theories floating around in political science and political reporting and see where they stand, now that this turbulent political year is drawing to a close. … I came up with 19 lessons learned. I thank my colleague Bob Erikson for help on some of these.
1. The party doesn’t decide. CONT.
Andrew Gelman, Columbia U.