How Much Do ‘October Surprises’ Move The Polls?

People are already calling it an “October surprise” — an unexpected moment late in the campaign that could change the trajectory of the election. The news that the FBI is looking into a new batch of Hillary Clinton’s emails (found on the computer of Anthony Weiner) is certainly surprising. And it came in October. But it will take several days to measure its effect on the race, and the real surprise would be a wild swing in the polls. That’s because even the most memorable October surprises of recent history weren’t the game-changers they’re sometimes portrayed to be.

There’s no official list of October surprises, a term that is loosely defined, but I chose six events from past campaigns that would seem to meet the definition, using the benefit of hindsight. CONT.

Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight