… Not all third-party pressures are equal in the Electoral College. Some states have long histories of strong independent leanings—among them are Alaska, Utah, and Johnson’s home of state of New Mexico. Johnson is polling strongly in all three. And while Alaska and Utah are liable to stay their usual color, New Mexico, traditionally blue, is surprisingly close at this point, the result of Johnson siphoning votes from Clinton.
But the bigger questions are in swing states, and states on the cusp of becoming competitive battlegrounds. Third-party candidates essentially take votes out of circulation, lowering the win number. The spoiler problem arises when those votes come disproportionately from one side. CONT.
Steven Yaccino & Sasha Issenberg, Bloomberg Politics