A poll published over the weekend suggesting that a majority of Scots will vote for independence Sept. 18 has both tanked the British pound and put the issue squarely in the international spotlight. …
But political prediction markets, in which people bet on the likely outcome, are all about evaluating and quantifying the full range of risks. And currently, bettors aren’t buying into the pro-independence hype. …
Either way, the Scottish referendum will provide one more data point to inform the continuing debate among political prognosticators about the relative efficacy of polls versus markets. CONT.
Justin Wolfers, New York Times