Latin America gets its own 538.com, and it beats the polls in Chile

The 2012 presidential election in the United States saw an increase in the popularity of poll aggregators, such as Drew Linzer at Votamatic, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight and Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium. … They proved that aggregating polls could be more useful than using a single poll to predict the results of an election.

This prompted us, at TresQuintos, to develop a model of our own. We tested it on the 2013 presidential election in Chile, which took place Nov. 17. While we followed the methods of the poll aggregators named above, our model is mainly informed by statistics and political science literature (e.g. Andrew Gelman and Simon Jackman). CONT.

Kenneth Bunker & Stefan Bauchowitz, The Monkey Cage