The House GOP’s 80-20 Problem

… Just three days into the shutdown, it doesn’t take rocket science to figure out which party is worse for wear. … For Boehner to navigate his conference out of the ideological corner his party has boxed itself into (partially as a result of its strategy in 2012 redistricting), the key will be the 132 Republicans who haven’t either signed onto the [Rep. Mark] Meadows letter or voiced support for a “clean CR.”

The problem is, even in the districts of these 132 Republicans – which sport an average PVI score of R+11 – any vote seen as “caving” or “folding” to Obama is automatically an invitation for a primary. Obama doesn’t just have zero leverage in these seats, he has “negative” leverage. Ultimately, Wall Street and the markets, as well as the severity of polling, are more likely to compel House Republicans into action than the president. [cont.]

David Wasserman, Cook Political Report