Beyond Reading the Tea Leaves: Using Data to Understand Partisanship and Foreign Policy

… A number of scholars including Shapiro and Bloch-Elkon, Trubowitz and Mellow, and Bafumi and Parent have warned that, in the two decades since the end of the Cold War, partisanship in foreign policy has been on the rise. According to this narrative, US foreign policy since the end of World War II was underpinned by broad, bipartisan support for an international strategy based on both projecting military power internationally and a commitment to multilateral institutions and agreements. Many of these same scholars, including Kupchan and Trubowitz, now warn that the bipartisan consensus in favor of this strategy – commonly referred to as “liberal internationalism” – is now unraveling. …

About five years ago, we asked ourselves what evidence we could bring to bear on assessing this claim. [cont.]

Jonathan Monten, U. of Okla., & Josh Busby, UT-Austin (