A Victory for the Pollsters and the Forecasters

Now that the Florida authorities have finally confirmed that President Obama defeated Mitt Romney in the Sunshine State by a margin of 50.0 per cent to 49.1 per cent, we have all the results and data we need to talk about what happened in the 2012 election, and who got it right.

Obviously, Nate Silver did—more about that below. But so did most of the other forecasters, and, more importantly, many of the pollsters on whose work all the prognosticators, Silver and myself included, relied. [cont.]

John Cassidy, The New Yorker