Signal forecast goes 50-50 with Florida outstanding

Last February, the Signal predicted that President Barack Obama would win reelection with 303 electoral votes to his opponent’s 235–a prediction we made before the Republican party had chosen the identity of that challenger. This struck many people as absurd at the time: There were nine months of campaigning left, two conventions, several billion dollars worth of advertising, four debates, and untold bumps in the road for both sides.

As of 1 a.m. EST this morning, 50 of 51 of those predictions are correct, with about 60,000 votes separating the candidates in Florida. If Romney can win the state, the Signal will have gone a perfect 51 for 51. [cont.]

David Rothschild & Chris Wilson, The Signal