If you want to know what a campaign really thinks about its chances, you don’t listen to what it says, you watch where it puts its money. This week’s Data Download is looking at how the President Donald Trump and Joe Biden teams (and their main affiliated outside groups) have […] Read more »
Biden is eating into Trump’s Rust Belt base
… Trump won the 2016 election in large part because he was able to break through the big “blue” wall in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He did so on the backs of White voters, and in particular White voters without a college degree. This led to those infamous memes of […] Read more »
Democrats Are on Track to Win Decisive Battleground Suburbs They Lost in 2016
Democrats’ path to victory in 2020 requires strong majorities in cities and minimizing losses in rural stretches, but it hinges on performance in the suburbs. … To better understand the dynamics in these decisive places, Third Way used data from the analytics firm Catalist to estimate how many people are […] Read more »
Fueled By Suburbs, Democrats Are Poised For Gains In Key States, Analysis Finds
A new report from the centrist Democratic group Third Way, and shared first with NPR, finds that Democrats are on track to win the suburbs in five of six key states they lost in the 2016 presidential election. The analysis — which is based on voter-file data from the progressive-aligned […] Read more »
Warning signs flash for Trump in Wisconsin as pandemic response fuels disapproval
… Although the general election is still months away, interviews with a number of Wisconsin voters, current and former lawmakers, party officials, political strategists, pollsters, politics watchers and union officials paint a picture of a critical battleground slipping from the president’s grasp. Despite middle-of-the-pack COVID-19 infection and death rates and […] Read more »
Trump now trails significantly in 2016’s most pivotal state
As we’ve watched former Vice President Joe Biden’s national lead over President Donald Trump grow, the question was whether we would see it reflected in state polls. We can now answer that question in the affirmative. We still have over four months to go, so there’s time for things to […] Read more »