A reality-TV-star billionaire businessman tears up the rules and vaults to the brink of the Republican nomination for president, begging the political question of the year: What is support for Donald Trump all about? The answer, according to statistical analysis of an array of possible explanations tested in the latest […] Read more »
Donald Trump, the Winning Wild Card
… Trump had already revealed the vulnerability of both the Republican Party and the conservative movement, institutions that together claimed the presidency in seven of the ten elections between 1968 and 2004. He has reconvened the largely passive “silent majority” — the Reagan Democrats and the angry white men of […] Read more »
Why Donald Trump Has Done Worse in Mostly White States
Donald Trump has tended to fare worst in states that are mostly white. That doesn’t mean he hasn’t had great success in appealing to white Republican primary voters — there’s no doubt of that — only that he generally does better in states that have higher percentages of nonwhites, particularly […] Read more »
Why Trump?
Donald Trump is winning Republican presidential primaries at such a great rate that he seems likely to become the next Republican presidential nominee and perhaps the next president. Democrats have little understanding of why he is winning — and winning handily, and even many Republicans don’t see him as a […] Read more »
Will Trump Send Working-Class Whites to the Democrats?
Democrats have regularly argued that, with a robust populist pitch, winning back white working-class voters could be within reach. In 2016, there is evidence that, with the impact of Donald J. Trump on the race, that could actually happen. CONT. Andrew Levison, New York Times Read more »
New poll shows Trump supporters more likely to fear a majority-minority U.S.
… Support for Trump is highest among whites who express ethnocentric viewpoints, score high on measures of authoritarianism, identify strongly as white, and who express negative views of racial minorities. Now a new poll that we conducted adds another dimension. In particular, we directly measured Americans’ fear of the demographic […] Read more »