Obamacare didn’t just give more people health insurance. It also caused more people to vote. That’s the conclusion of a new body of evidence that strongly suggests that giving people coverage through expansions of the Medicaid program increases their likelihood of participating in the next election. Medicaid expansions seem to […] Read more »
Why Democrats’ Gain Was More Impressive Than It Appears
It wasn’t necessarily the night of either party’s dreams. The Democrats are poised to gain around 35 seats after Tuesday’s elections. Republicans seem likely to gain a few seats in the Senate, and they triumphed in some high-profile governor’s races. But Democrats faced formidable structural disadvantages, unlike any in recent […] Read more »
What If The Polls Are Wrong Again? 4 Scenarios For What Might Happen In The Elections
There’s a lot that can happen Tuesday, the culmination of a long midterm election campaign that will provide the first nationwide measure of the U.S. electorate since Donald Trump was elected president. One narrative has become dominant: that Democrats are likely to gain control of the House and Republicans hold […] Read more »
The polling miss that defines 2018 might not be the one from 2016. It may be the one from 2017.
… In 2016, one of the problems in state polls was that Trump voters turned out more heavily than many pollsters expected. In 2017, one of the problems with the polls in Virginia was that Democrats turned out more heavily than many pollsters expected. Those Democrats elected not only Northam […] Read more »
A new poll shows the secret truth of 2018: Not much has changed in months
Here’s a remarkable thing about the 2018 election campaign: how little has changed. That is the lesson from the third George Washington University Politics Poll, which was just released today. I think most people know that we live in a world of strong partisanship, which is increasingly evident in congressional […] Read more »
Major Polling Stories of the 2018 Cycle
1) It is indeed all about President Trump. Almost seven out of ten (69%) registered voters are either voting to send a signal of support (31%) or opposition (38%) to the president. This ties Obama (69%) as a high water mark since this question was first asked in 1998. CONT. […] Read more »