The sixth survey conducted by the multi-university COVID-19 Consortium for Understanding the Public’s Policy Preferences Across States, led in part by Shorenstein Center faculty Matthew Baum and Kennedy School Institute of Politics Polling Director John Della Volpe, found not only an increase in approval for vote by mail but also […] Read more »
Biden leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania due to COVID concerns, country’s direction
Late on election night 2016, it was Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that put Donald Trump over the top and into the White House, thanks to late-deciding voters who went his way, and big margins among people who wanted change. Today, the vast majority of voters in these two states say things […] Read more »
The Voting Will End Nov. 3. The Legal Battle Probably Won’t.
The stormy once-in-a-lifetime Florida recount battle that polarized the nation in 2000 and left the Supreme Court to decide the presidency may soon look like a high school student council election compared with what could be coming after this November’s election. Imagine not just another Florida, but a dozen Floridas. […] Read more »
Poll-Based Election Forecasts Will Always Struggle With Uncertainty
Key Points• We have no idea how much uncertainty exists in pre-election polls. That leads to very complex poll-based forecast models.• The general public lacks the expertise necessary to appropriately interpret win probabilities from those complex models.• Some research shows that overly certain forecasts might depress turnout, which could matter […] Read more »
The 2020 election actually starts in one month
Election Day 2020 is now less than three months away. In reality, however, the election starts in one month; on September 4, North Carolina will begin sending absentee ballots to voters. The fact is that we no longer have one election day in this country, especially in the age of […] Read more »
How Has the Electoral College Survived for This Long?
As our revived national conversation on race has made clear, the legacies of slavery and white supremacy run wide and deep in American society and political life. One such legacy — which is particularly noteworthy in a presidential election season — has been the survival and preservation of the Electoral […] Read more »