The divided nature of the U.S. has been a constant theme in the 2012 presidential campaign with the discussion of gaps, divides and splits in the electorate driving much of the coverage. By now political watchers can recite the demographic advantages of each candidate by rote. … But as Tuesday […] Read more »
Nonvoters: Who They Are, What They Think
In the final days before Tuesday’s election, most of the focus will be on those likely to cast votes. But a sizable minority of adults choose not to vote or are unable to vote. By their absence, they also will affect the outcome. Nonvoters are numerous; in 2008, they constituted […] Read more »
In Deadlocked Race, Neither Side Has Ground Game Advantage
Just as the presidential race is deadlocked in the campaign’s final days, the candidates are also running about even when it comes to the ground game. Voters nationally, as well those in the closely contested battleground states, report being contacted at about the same rates by each of the campaigns. […] Read more »
The Night A Computer Predicted The Next President
Some milestone moments in journalism converged 60 years ago on election night in the run between Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower and Democratic Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson. It was the first coast-to-coast television broadcast of a presidential election. Walter Cronkite anchored his first election night broadcast for CBS. And it was […] Read more »
Stanford Election Atlas maps votes, polling place by polling place
We’re all familiar with red states, blue states and, as Nov. 6 nears, the maddening indecision of the swinging purples. But state-level, and even county-level, polls aren’t the whole story. When presidential election results are examined at the level of individual polling places, subtler geographic trends emerge. Long-extinct transportation corridors […] Read more »
The Statistical Significance of Sandy Could Alter Electoral, Popular-Vote Math
… Imagine a scenario in which Romney edges Obama by 100,000 in Ohio, 30,000 in Iowa, 15,000 in New Hampshire, and 50,000 in Virginia. That’s 41 electoral votes with a microscopic edge of 195,000 votes in four states. That 195,000 would be slightly more than a third of the average […] Read more »