Reframing Turnout: Why 2008 Wasn’t As Unique As Many Imagine

The turnout assumptions of pollsters are increasingly under scrutiny, with the polls often showing Democrats with a persistent advantage in party-ID. Many hold that the polls assume an unrealistically high Democratic turnout, mainly based on the assumption that Democratic, young, and minority turnout was anomalously high in 2008 and can’t […] Read more »

Romney internal memo says ‘GOP enthusiasm’ will tilt election

In the face of poll numbers showing a challenging path to victory Tuesday, particularly in Ohio, Mitt Romney’s campaign is telling allies to talk up Republican chances in Democratic-leaning states while insisting that “GOP enthusiasm” will carry Romney to victory on Election Day. In a memo circulated Saturday to top […] Read more »

Five myths about the electoral college

Could Mitt Romney win the popular vote on Tuesday while President Obama captures a majority of the 538 electoral votes and a return trip to the White House? Recent polling results have raised just that possibility, reminding Americans once again that they cast ballots, but they don’t elect presidents directly. […] Read more »