The combined Democratic campaign placed a large portion of its 2014 success on the premise that they would use a massive investment in technology, grassroots strategy, and boots on the ground to reprise the Obama urban coalition of minorities and younger voters. It failed miserably, and Democrats around the nation […] Read more »
Economy, Anxieties about Terrorism and Ebola Fueled Midterm Discontent
Despite months of employment growth and the lowest unemployment rate since July 2008, more than 6-in-10 Americans think that the country is on the wrong track (62 percent). This negative judgment is fueled by continued economic concerns, coupled with more recent anxieties about the threats of Ebola and terrorism. The […] Read more »
Little Enthusiasm, Familiar Divisions After the GOP’s Big Midterm Victory
After a sweeping midterm election victory on Nov. 4, the Republican Party retook full control of Congress. But the public has mixed reactions to the GOP’s big win – much as it did four years ago, after Republicans gained control of the House though not the Senate. The post-election survey […] Read more »
A Wave—but No Tsunami
… Whenever a party easily beats the point spread with seats to spare, it has had a great night. There’s no denying Republicans had a great night. Sure, this was a wave. Whether to use a term like “wave” or even the one we coined in 1994—the “political tsunami”—is a […] Read more »
Shellacking, the Sequel
… Tuesday’s resounding Republican sweep closely followed the script of the GOP’s landslide in 2010, and it exposed perhaps even more deeply the limits of the modern Democratic coalition—while underscoring the party’s persistent inability to convince enough whites that they will benefit from activist government. But just as President Obama […] Read more »
One Reason the Democrats Lost So Big in Midterms: Exceptionally Low Voter Turnout
When turnout falls, Democrats perform worse in elections. That general pattern is well known. In making their forecasts, pollsters try to estimate what that turnout will be on the basis of previous elections. This year, pre-election opinion polls were off by the largest amount seen in over 20 years. Could […] Read more »