… If racial animus has the power to draw those with a high propensity of racial resentment into the Republican tent, can it then function as a wedge-issue, potentially alienating traditionally Republican voters from Republican candidates? Tests of this hypothesis are difficult, mostly because Big-N-data on resentment that would permit […] Read more »
The math is clear: Democrats need to win more working-class white votes
Following the noteworthy Democratic successes in the 2017 elections, we’re once again hearing that Democrats can achieve their electoral goals without any greater success among the white working class. Indeed, some on the left seem to feel that Democratic gestures toward the white working class would not only be ineffective […] Read more »
Generic ballot measures, party candidate recruitment and the coming 2018 wave
With a series of survey results showing that Democrats have an enormous lead over Republicans in the 2018 election for control of the House of Representatives, it’s worth asking what these generic ballot items really mean, and how well they predict what’s actually going to happen in November. CONT. Dan […] Read more »
Women and independents drive advantage for Democrats ahead of midterm elections, Post-ABC poll finds
Strong support from women and independents is fueling Democrats’ large early advantage ahead of this year’s congressional elections, a sign that two groups that have recoiled from Donald Trump’s presidency will play a decisive role in November, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. CONT. Scott Clement, Washington Post Read more »
Democrats solidify their lead in midterm elections matchup
Democrats have solidified their position in the November midterm elections in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, maintaining a 12-point lead among registered voters while improving to a wide 14-point advantage among likely voters in congressional preference. CONT. Sofi Sinozich, ABC News Read more »
CNN Poll: Democratic advantage narrows in 2018
As the midterm election year begins, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds the Democratic advantage on a generic congressional ballot has tightened to a narrow 5 points among registered voters, but those voters who say they are most enthusiastic about turning out to vote this fall favor Democrats […] Read more »