In January 2018, as Donald Trump completed his first year as president, Bright Line Watch conducted its fourth expert survey on the state of U.S. democracy. At the same time, we conducted an identical public survey – our second – with a nationally representative sample of Americans. This approach allows […] Read more »
A Viewer’s Guide to ‘Special Election Watch’
Today starts a regular feature of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab called “Special Election Watch.” The idea is to follow special elections in 2018 as a guide to the extent of the Democratic swing in the November 2018 election. First, a couple of words of background, and then […] Read more »
Russians penetrated U.S. voter systems, says top U.S. official
The U.S. official in charge of protecting American elections from hacking says the Russians successfully penetrated the voter registration rolls of several U.S. states prior to the 2016 presidential election. In an exclusive interview with NBC News, Jeanette Manfra, the head of cybersecurity at the Department of Homeland Security, said […] Read more »
Firmly outside the norm for consolidated democracies
Our survey results between December 2017 and January 2018 demonstrate mixed results, with some threat ratings improving and others worsening. From November to January, ratings improved on all six dimensions of democratic performance, reversing the deterioration from October to November. However, democracy experts still see American political behavior in 2017-18 […] Read more »
Use of election forecasts in campaign coverage can confuse voters and may lower turnout
Americans have long been familiar with “horse race” polls that accompany elections in the United States. But since 2008, a new polling tool has gained prominence, one that not only suggests which candidate is ahead at any given moment but also estimates their probability of winning the eventual election. These […] Read more »
The Public Says Good-Bye to the Trump Voter-Fraud Commission: Introduction to a Series
This post begins a four-part series about some public opinion research I recently did to gauge attitudes about the termination of the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity. … To whet your appetite for what is to come, here’s the executive summary of the whole series: Respondents were slightly more […] Read more »