Under normal conditions, Democrats win in Virginia. But these clearly aren’t normal conditions. In the final moments of the 2021 race for governor, the race is coming down to the wire and Democrats no longer have a discernible advantage. Therefore, the rating for the race is changing from Tilt Democratic […] Read more »
Could anti-Trump messaging be more effective in 2022 than in 2021?
A wise friend of mine recently observed that if Democrats can’t turn Virginia’s gubernatorial election into a referendum on former President Donald Trump, it’s hard to see how that strategy would work in swing states in 2022. It’s a very reasonable point, since Trump lost Virginia by 10 points last […] Read more »
Why Democrats are in a lot of trouble in Virginia
Virginia will have the eyes of the political world on it Tuesday night. Most of the attention will be on the marquee gubernatorial election between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin. Less watched, but important for its national implications, are the elections for the 100 seats in the House […] Read more »
A Last Word on Virginia
Key Points• This Virginia gubernatorial race is one of the most vexing races we can remember.• Terry McAuliffe (D) retains the advantage of running in a state that is clearly trending Democratic. But Glenn Youngkin (R) has many significant advantages of his own, which may outweigh Virginia’s Democratic lean.• When […] Read more »
What the Virginia governor’s race can tell us about Democrats’ hope to keep control of Congress
Next week, Democrats could lose or come close to losing a governor’s race in a state that voted for President Biden by 10 points. So what does that mean for Democrats’ chances to keep control of Congress next year? … While we should be wary of over-interpreting one election, there […] Read more »
A fractured Virginia electorate prepares to pick a governor
The newly released Washington Post-Schar School poll shows the race for governor of Virginia as a dead heat as it heads toward Tuesday’s conclusion. Everything is now at the margins and small changes in the shape of the electorate compared with recent elections will determine the winner. … The Virginia […] Read more »