… As Republicans gathered for their latest debate in Las Vegas this week, more GOP strategists believe their presidential marathon is evolving toward a three-way contest that could divide the party along sharp demographic and geographic lines well into 2016. CONT. Ronald Brownstein, National Journal Read more »
Why a key to the 2016 Southern vote lies centuries ago on another continent
… Democratic candidates, who used to campaign aggressively in the heavily Scots-Irish rural communities of Appalachia, have shifted their attention to liberal whites and ethnic minorities, as Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012. Now, as she builds her 2016 campaign, Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be focusing […] Read more »
Commonwealth of Contrasts: A Political Typology of the Virginia Electorate
Virginia is poised to play a pivotal role in selecting the next president. To carry this battleground state in 2016, the contenders must build a winning coalition from the seven voter groups identified in this report, which sorts voters into cohesive typology groups based upon their attitudes and values. So […] Read more »
Why is Hillary Clinton viewed so unfavorably in early primary states?
Recent surveys suggest that Hillary Clinton may be more reliant on the non-white vote in November 2016 than you might have assumed. A poll released Sunday from NBC/Marist reinforces one from last week by Quinnipiac University that found her to be as unpopular as Donald Trump in key swing states. […] Read more »
The Polling Paradox: How to Read the Numbers
Do you believe, as the ABC News/Washington Post poll showed this week, that Hillary Clinton is beating Jeb Bush nationally by a margin of 10 percentage points (51 percent to 41 percent)? Do you believe, as the Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday on a set of battleground states showed, that […] Read more »
Is Hillary Clinton ‘Likable Enough’?
Barack Obama said before the New Hampshire primary during his contentious primary with Hillary Clinton in 2008 that she was “likable enough.” The quip got him in trouble with Clinton supporters, but Clinton’s likability is at the heart of her candidacy in 2016. Clinton has a massive lead among Democratic […] Read more »