Here’s a question very few people expected to be asking this year: Does the Democratic Party have a future? The defeat of Hillary Clinton has revived with new intensity the conflict between proponents of identity politics — focusing electoral attention on African-Americans, Hispanics, women and the L.G.B.T. community — and […] Read more »
The educational rift in the 2016 election
A political cleavage created by disparities in educational attainment has emerged among voters across the democratic West. In this year’s presidential election, Donald Trump attracted a large share of the vote from whites without a college degree, receiving 72 percent of the white non-college male vote and 62 percent of […] Read more »
Is polling dead?
Donald Trump is President-Elect of the United States. Britain is leaving the European Union. Ed Miliband’s not Prime Minister. The past eighteen months have left the reputation of both pollsters and poll aggregators in tatters. … The polling misses in the United Kingdom and United States are damaging not just […] Read more »
How do you feel? Don’t ask.
What the fuck just happened? First, the near-miss on Scottish independence, then the 2015 general election, Jeremy Corbyn’s election as Labour leader, Brexit, Corbyn’s re-election and now Donald Trump’s victory. Well, I’ve been working through a theory for a while now. I suspect some of you have been doing the […] Read more »
Why the Whole Trump-Clinton Election Could Probably Just Be Held in Pennsylvania
With her polling lead slipping, Hillary Clinton still has Pennsylvania as a firewall — for now. David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research who runs PredictWise, an online forecasting model that relies on betting markets, explained the primacy of Pennsylvania for Mrs. Clinton’s election chances during an interview this week. […] Read more »
Automatic polling using Computational Linguistics: More reliable than traditional polling?
The outcome of the 2016 EU referendum did not only spell disaster for the incumbent prime minister and the Remain campaign. It also amounted to a PR disaster for the commercial pollsters, with YouGov, Populus, ComRes, ORB Ipsos-Mori and Survation all failing to correctly predict the outcome. … By contrast, […] Read more »