Midterm elections are usually a referendum on the party in power in Washington. And in politics “power” tends to be associated with the legislative and executive branches — otherwise known to most Americans in 2022 as the Democratic Congress and the Biden administration. But this summer has brought a lot […] Read more »
Once unthinkable, Democrats now see narrow path to keeping the House
Democrats are voicing growing confidence about limiting losses in the House and potentially even salvaging their majority in the midterm elections, with candidates and allied groups making moves to capitalize on a backlash to abortion restrictions, signs of improvements in the economy and opposition to Donald Trump. After months of […] Read more »
Flip the Script
Earlier this cycle, a seasoned Democratic strategist argued that his party’s success in the midterms wouldn’t be predicated on policy successes but by turning out the 2018/2020 coalition of anti-Trump voters. This strategy, however, of trying to turn the midterms from a referendum on the party in charge to the […] Read more »
Roe fell two months ago. Here’s how much it’s hurting the GOP.
Two months ago, the Supreme Court gave Republicans a once-in-a-generation victory in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, ending the constitutional right to abortion. Pro-life Republicans rejoiced, and some red states immediately passed new restrictions on the procedure. The rejoicing might have been premature. Since Dobbs was handed down, nearly […] Read more »
Biden approval surges, rebounds to highest level since May
A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that President Biden’s job-approval rating has shot up 5 percentage points since early August — its largest and most sudden change to date. The president’s disapproval number, meanwhile, has fallen by 3 percentage points. Never before has Biden’s overall rating shifted that much in […] Read more »
Four’s a trend: Democrats are doing much better in special elections since Roe was overturned
A special election, on its own, cannot tell us much about the political environment. Grouped together, special elections can tell a story. And in the case of special elections for the US House since Roe v. Wade was overturned, the story is clear: The national environment has become far more […] Read more »