Forecasting models using Facebook data can be more accurate at predicting election outcomes than polling

… As Facebook morphed into a ubiquitous social utility used by seventy-one percent of Americans and “popular across a diverse mix of demographic groups,” my colleague, Ed Erickson, and I speculated that Facebook data might very well provide a reliable measure of campaign effectiveness and enable the development of a […] Read more »

How Donald Trump courted the right-wing fringe to conquer the GOP

… Trump’s dominance in this year’s presidential primary race has often been described as a mysterious natural phenomenon: the Donald riding a wild, unpredictable tsunami of conservative populist anger that just now happens to be crashing down on the Republican establishment. But in fact, Trump spent years methodically building and […] Read more »

We Need Smartphones! (And All the Latest Stuff)

The modern digital revolution, begun in the 1980s, now dominates Americans’ lives—down to the ways they communicate, work, learn, and shop. A startling 69 percent of Americans said that having the latest technology is “total[ly] necessary” to their lives, according to the results of the most recent Heartland Monitor Poll. […] Read more »