Joe Biden often describes himself as a bridge between the Democratic Party’s past and future generation of leaders. But the 2020 election results signal that he may play an even more indispensable role, as a bridge between the party’s past and future electoral coalitions. Biden won the White House by […] Read more »
Those Obama-Trump Counties
Though Joe Biden eked out a victory this week, it wasn’t because of the many former Democratic strongholds that unexpectedly swung for Trump in 2016. Of the 206 counties that voted for Obama in both 2008 and 2012 but then went for Trump in 2016, nearly all of them—186 as […] Read more »
Beaver County, Miami-Dade tight for Trump days before election
As the 2020 campaign nears the final turn, journalists and analysts will be watching some places, like those that seem more likely to swing or hold important demographic groups, more closely than others for clues on how the vote may be unfolding. This week the Data Download takes a deep […] Read more »
The Relentless Shrinking of Trump’s Base
In 2016, Donald J. Trump confounded the polls in part by generating an unanticipated level of enthusiasm and turnout from a group that had grown increasingly apathetic about elections: white voters without college degrees. But in 2020, Mr. Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. face a drastically changed electorate. The […] Read more »
This is Biden’s shortest path to the White House
Two weeks before Election Day, Joe Biden appears well-positioned to finish the job that Democrats above all hired him to do: Rebuild the party’s blue wall in the Rust Belt. Biden’s principal asset in the 2020 Democratic primaries was the widespread sense among party voters that he was best qualified […] Read more »
This Is How Biden Should Approach the Latino Vote
… There’s a winning message Mr. Biden and his party can deliver that resonates with most Hispanics no matter how they conceptualize the group’s racial identity. The key is to link racism and class conflict. The pivot we recommend was also the most convincing message we tested among whites and […] Read more »