While 2020 may very well defy historical patterns, in elections over the past five decades an incumbent president's approval rating at ~200 days out has been a remarkably strong predictor of his ultimate vote share. Trump's current rating puts him in Carter & GHW Bush territory. pic.twitter.com/pyvZA1q6St — Patrick Egan […] Read more »
Biden Leads Trump in Key States. But Hillary Clinton Led by More.
If the presidential election were held today, polls in crucial swing states like Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania suggest that Joseph R. Biden Jr. would be in position for a narrow victory. The disquieting news for Democrats is that at the same point in 2016, Hillary Clinton was in a better […] Read more »
Biden’s strength with older voters could threaten Trump’s electoral path in 2020
A string of recent polls shows troubling signs for President Trump with older voters, a group central to his reelection effort that appears to be drifting away from him amid a pandemic that has been especially deadly for senior citizens. Former vice president Joe Biden, whose support from older voters […] Read more »
Is Biden Gaining Older Voters, and Losing Young Ones?
After impeachment, a coronavirus pandemic and four years of tweets, the early national polls show that the 2020 presidential campaign begins almost exactly where it left off in 2016. … But not everything is exactly the same, and even modest differences have the potential to alter the race. Mr. Biden […] Read more »
Trump’s crisis mismanagement alienating seniors
A fundamental rule of politics is the party that’s divided is the one that’s losing. A cardinal rule of pandemic politics is that it’s better to err on the side of caution instead of taking risks that would invite a political backlash. There are no libertarians in a crisis, but […] Read more »
Can Joe Biden balance young and old?
Joe Biden is confronting a generational tightrope. As the former vice president shifts his focus toward the general election, one of the most important questions facing his campaign is whether he can fortify his tentative standing among younger voters without weakening his sturdy position among the old. … The sweet […] Read more »