One of the biggest wild cards in the 2018 battle for the U.S. Senate may not be so wild after all. New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez’s federal corruption trial ended in a hung jury last week. That leaves him free to run for reelection in 2018. Menendez could be […] Read more »
Could Roy Moore flip deep-red Alabama to blue?
As allegations of sexual misconduct against Roy Moore multiply and polls suggest he could lose the senate race he once led by double-digits, political analysts offer one cautionary refrain: Remember, it’s Alabama and he’s a Republican. But a look at Moore’s last general election in the state shows its voters […] Read more »
Trump’s Tweets Are Hurting Him With the Voters He Needs Most
… Ten months into his presidency, the failure of any one single scandal to sink his administration has led some in the media to suggest that Trump is like “Teflon,” with the grime that would stick to (and ruin) other politicians simply slipping right off. But the numbers show that […] Read more »
Bill Clinton, Roy Moore and the Power of Social Identity
It may feel to Americans that an intense state of us-versus-them is something new, but it’s not. People have been using party as a lens to filter information for decades and beyond. … Political scientists for decades have thought about party identification as simultaneously being a summary of a person’s […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Jones leads Moore by 8 points in Alabama Senate race
Alabama voters want a candidate who will represent their state with honor — and they think Doug Jones has strong moral character and Roy Moore doesn’t. That gives the Democrat the lead in the U.S. Senate race. … Support from women is the key to the Democrat’s advantage in this […] Read more »
Alabama Senate: Jones Now Narrowly Favored
It’s amazing to write, and there’s time for our outlook to change, but here goes: A Democrat is now a narrow favorite to win a Senate special election in Alabama. We’re changing our rating of the Dec. 12 special election from Likely Republican all the way to Leans Democratic. Republicans […] Read more »