Nate Silver discusses election polling on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy Read more »
Assessing How Pivotal the Hispanic Vote Was to Obama’s Victory
… Looking at actual vote counts and the exit poll results from the recent election can provide insight into answering two important questions: First, was Mr. Obama’s electoral victory dependent on high Hispanic turnout and support from a large percentage of the Hispanic vote? And second, if the Hispanic vote […] Read more »
Can unions save the white working-class vote for Democrats?
Voters in union households provided a big boost to President Obama in Ohio and Wisconsin, where key battles over public sector unions have been waged. Their strong support helped him staunch big losses elsewhere among white working-class voters. White voters without college degrees made up nearly half of the total […] Read more »
Crowds Are This Election’s Real Winners
Forget about Obama versus Romney. The real contest in the 2012 election was about analytics. … In the latest skirmish, the quants won. They predicted the election outcome far more accurately than the pundits did. Therein lies a lesson for executives and policy makers alike: Wisdom and intuition may actually […] Read more »
Florida: Obama Right on the Economy and Immigration
… The data collected by Latino Decisions in Florida give us insight into how Obama won the Latino vote in Florida. The two most important issues facing these voters were the economy and immigration. … Obama was on the correct side of both issues in the mind of Latino voters […] Read more »
The 2012 Election Was Good for Political Science
In late September, I was involved in an email exchange in which a historian stated that “Someone should do a piece cataloging down all the poli sci consensi being undone this season.” Now I can write with some confidence that the findings of the political science canon were largely confirmed […] Read more »