The last two successful Democratic candidates for president, President Barack Obama in 2012 and former Vice President Joe Biden in 2020, each won the national popular vote with 51 percent of the vote and beat their GOP opponent by four points (51-47). Yet, we also know these similar national popular […] Read more »
Great Lakes states voted against Hillary Clinton; not for Trump
A lot of things had to fall right for Donald Trump to win the presidency in 2016, but the biggest key was his ability to win key northern states that had voted Democratic for several cycles. In particular, Trump flipped Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which had voted Democratic in every […] Read more »
Trump likely can’t win without veteran support
… Trump’s campaign flourished in 2016 even after saying then-Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a former prisoner of war, was “not a war hero.” He won a larger share of the primary vote from active and former military members than he did from other Republican voters, according to an academically […] Read more »
Conventions Can Boost the Incumbent. Did It Work This Time?
The last two presidential re-election campaigns followed a similar playbook: define the opposition early on the most important issue, emphasize a few cultural wedge issues to rally the base while appealing to a few swing voters, and reinvigorate supporters at the convention. It was enough for George W. Bush in […] Read more »
In nearly every swing state at this point, Biden is outperforming Obama and Clinton
… While Trump and his allies have consistently raised his unexpected victory in 2016 as a reason to dismiss what the polls say, highlighting national polling pointing to a Clinton win in particular, 2020 doesn’t look like 2016 at this point. Biden’s not only outperforming where Clinton was at the […] Read more »
Trump Is Behind In A Way That Could Swing The 2020 Election
Wisconsin is a crucial state for the upcoming presidential election. Hillary Clinton lost the state in 2016 by about 27,000 votes. Along with losing Michigan (by about 12,000 votes) and Pennsylvania (by about 68,000 votes), those three states handed President Trump the electoral college victory. So, can Joe Biden do […] Read more »