Why did President Obama get a bounce in the polls following the Democratic convention? Part of it may simply be one of the functions that conventions have long served: to motivate voters who are generally loyal to the party, but who had been paying only marginal attention to the race. […] Read more »
Forecasting the Presidential Election: Other Crystal Balls
… A better way to forecast the election results — potentially, at least — is to uncover the underlying fundamentals that propel an electorate to vote the way it does, and to combine them in some rigorous, standard fashion based on America’s voting history. … Prof. James Campbell of the […] Read more »
Romney and the Rally Effect
I said yesterday that Republicans don’t appear to read political scientists on the subject of the effect of the economy on elections. But I’ve always suspected that sometime in the 1990s Republicans did read Richard Brody’s classic article about the “rally effect” — in which he found that “rally around […] Read more »
Obama ticket has edge after conventions wrap up
An increase in support from women as well as independents gives Barack Obama a post-convention advantage over challenger Mitt Romney. The president receives a five percentage-point bounce among women and a 12-point bounce among independents, in a Fox News poll released Wednesday. [cont.] Dana Blanton, Fox News Read more »
Romney Relies On Race To Attack Obama On Welfare
Mitt Romney has stuck with his theme of attacking President Obama over “gutting” the work requirement for welfare. In an often-aired television commercial, Romney’s claims that Obama “quietly” dropped the requirement that welfare recipients find work and instead they “just send you a check”. … I asked a nationally representative […] Read more »
History Shows Attack on Americans in Libya Could Spur Rally Effect
Most domestic and international events, no matter how tragic, are subject to being swept up in the maw of the heated, no-holds-barred presidential campaign we are in now. Both campaigns’ war rooms are constantly adjusting and readjusting their positionings, reactions, public statements, and actions relating to almost anything that becomes […] Read more »