I said yesterday that Republicans don’t appear to read political scientists on the subject of the effect of the economy on elections.
But I’ve always suspected that sometime in the 1990s Republicans did read Richard Brody’s classic article about the “rally effect” — in which he found that “rally around the flag” effects depend on the reaction of the out-party, not (for example) whether the event in question is successful or not
If the out-party immediately criticizes the president, then he doesn’t get a bump in his approval ratings; if they support him or stay quiet, then there’s a positive bounce. [cont.]
Jonathan Bernstein, A plain blog about politics