Jay DeSart and I have done some work over the years on using September state-wide trial-heat polls to predict presidential election outcomes in the states. … Jay has been good enough to update our model and provide forecasts for the 2012 election. Here’s what it looks like: [cont.] Tom Holbrook, […] Read more »
Suspicion of poll, jobs numbers takes hold on right
As the presidential election reaches its apex in intensity, so have arguments from the right that polls and economic statistics — the numbers used to explain the 2012 campaign — are not to be trusted. The theory that many polls are under-sampling Republicans (and thus overstating the support for Obama) […] Read more »
Shifting Party Allegiances Are Tricky for Pollsters
… In the last few weeks, Republican figures such as Karl Rove and Rush Limbaugh have questioned polls showing leads for President Barack Obama over Republican nominee Mitt Romney—including, in Mr. Rove’s case, in the opinion section of this newspaper. They say many polls are skewed because far more respondents […] Read more »
The First Presidential Debate: A sneak preview of next week’s New Yorker cover
New Yorker cover by Barry Blitt. Read more »
Post-Debate Public Research
… There were two media surveys completed right after the debate, one by CNN of those that had watched the debate, the other by CBS of uncommitted voters (undecided or said they could change their mind) who watched the debate. Both showed by significant margins that voters believed Governor Romney […] Read more »
Where Romney Can Find Votes
… Right now, Mr. Romney is close in the polls for the most part because he is running up the numbers in strongly conservative communities. … For him to narrow the gap with Mr. Obama or take the lead, he’ll eventually need to make inroads with voters in those urban, […] Read more »