… New polling data out of Arizona released by America’s Voice and Latino Decisions suggests Arizona may be much closer than the polling averages indicate. A full 80% of Latinos say they plan to vote for Obama, compared to just 14% for Romney, and Latino enthusiasm is much, much higher […] Read more »
Romney Erases Obama’s Convention Bounce in Forecast
Following another day of strong polling on Tuesday, Mitt Romney advanced into the best position in the FiveThirtyEight forecast since the party conventions. His chances of winning the Electoral College are now 28.8 percent in the forecast, his highest since Aug. 29. For the first time since Aug. 28, President […] Read more »
Who are the ‘undecided’ voters? And what the heck are they waiting for?
“Saturday Night Live” has mocked them. Tony Kornheiser has said he “loathes” them. Partisans — and many political reporters — wonder just what the heck they are waiting for. The “they” of course refers to that sliver of people who say they remain undecided in the 2012 presidential race. With […] Read more »
WPA Pre-Election Polling Summary
Oh what change a week brings. With just 28 days to go until Election Day, we’ve seen a real change in momentum in the Presidential race thanks to a great debate from Mitt Romney and a historically poor one from Barack Obama. In this week’s election update, I’ll cover some […] Read more »
Winning ‘the 47 Percent’
Single women, people of color and young people – the Rising American Electorate – voted for change in 2008. To understand the dynamics of this election, Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund and Democracy Corps engaged in a three-phase research project with a particular emphasis on disengaged voters, Obama defectors, and […] Read more »
Numbers overload: Polling data hype sways voters
Treating presidential polls as gospel is a little like placing political faith in the lifespan of a fruit fly. “People tend to subscribe a more durable nature to polling data,” said Russ Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University. “It’s more ephemeral.” … Pundits whip themselves up with every […] Read more »